House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL Classification: D10 J13 R21 Keywords: Fertility HPI Credit constraints Home equity Cyclicality of births MSA Housing market This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level house prices affect household fertility decisions. Recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing, and assuming that children are normal goods, we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current period fertility. This applies to both potential first-time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for current homeowners, an increase in MSA-level house prices will increase home equity, leading to a positive effect on birth rates. Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5% increase in fertility rates among owners and a 2.4% decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8% increase in current period fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates. This project investigates how changes in Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level house prices affect household fertility decisions. The conceptual approach is based on an economic model of fertility that recognizes that changes in house prices potentially have offsetting effects on fertility. Assuming that children are normal goods, and recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with (additional) children, an increase in the price of housing will have a negative substitution effect on the demand for children in the current period, all else equal. This is true for both potential first-time homeowners (i.e., current non-owners who would buy a house with the addition of a child) and current homeowners who might buy a larger house with the addition of a child. On the other hand, for a homeowner, an increase in MSA-level house prices increases home equity. This could lead to an increase in birth rates among homeowners through two channels — …